Ocugen, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCGN) Is Hanging On By a Thread With Its Latest Indian Biotech Deal

On 01-28-2k21 (Thursday) Shareholders tracking shares of Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) belongs to Healthcare sector and Biotechnology industry. OCGN flaunted -13.54% to reach at $1.66 during previous trading session. OCGN Inc. has a total market value of 277.63M at the time of writing – representing $162.03M outstanding shares. Turning to other widely-considered trading data, this company’s half yearly performance is observed at 130.56%.

Ocugen (NASDAQ:OCGN) is a biotech firm that is trying to stay relevant with its latest partnership with an Indian Covid-19 vaccine developer, Bharat Biotech. OCGN stock has risen from well below $1.00 per share at the end of last year to $2.23, as of Jan. 20.

The problem is this is a very risky partnership deal. This may have a depressing effect on OCGN stock in the near future.

Issues With The Vaccine

For one, even though Bharat Biotech has a proposed vaccine for Covid-19, there is no data on its effectiveness. But that hasn’t stopped the Indian government from distributing it throughout the country.

Moreover, on Jan. 19, Bharat Biotech issued a warning about its Covid-19 vaccine. According to Seeking Alpha, the company said that people with weaker immunity and other medical conditions should consult a doctor before getting the shot. In addition, they said if possible avoid the vaccine.

That’s not a good sign to start out a partnership in biotech vaccines. In fact, the same article said that some doctors in New Delhi have been hesitating to take the shot. They must have seen some results that have not yet been widely known or published about the vaccine.

The problem is that the collaboration announcement on Dec. 22 with Bharat Biotech does not indicate that there has been any Phase 3 clinical trial results. Ocugen will have US rights to the vaccine candidate and, in collaboration with Bharat Biotech, will be responsible for clinical development, registration, and commercialization for the US market.

But the only information about the vaccine’s effectiveness is that there was a Phase 3 clinical trial in India involving 26,000 volunteers. That was as of Dec. 22. Since then the company has not stated how effective the vaccine has been.

Nevertheless, the Indian government is distributing it to 10 million healthcare workers, along with a vaccine developed by AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN).

What To Do With OCGN Stock

This is a highly speculative stock and a highly risky situation. No one in their right mind would put any serious money behind OCGN stock as an investment.

Maybe some people have a small portion of their portfolio for speculative plays like this. But frankly, if it was more than 1% of your overall portfolio it would not really be worth it.

I would argue that there is at least a 70% chance of a 50% or greater, let’s say, 70% drop in the stock at today’s price.

There is also a 30% chance that the stock could double. Therefore, if we add up these odds, it looks like this.

First, 70% times negative 70% equals a negative 49% expected return. But we have to add in the odds of a positive return. There is only a 30% chance of a 100% return. That works out to +30%.

But the problem is if we add negative 49% to positive 30%, the expected return is still negative 19%. In other words, the most likely outcome here, without further positive data, is that you will lose money buying OCGN stock.

Obviously, you can play with these odds a bit, but the sad fact is this is not a good situation to put your money in right now. For one, we need more information about the effectiveness of the Phase 3 trial results.

Volume Evaluation

The USA listed company saw a recent price trade of $1.66 and 35,390,268 shares have traded hands in the session. There are 50.39M shares which are traded as an average over the last three months period.

Many investors forget that one of the defining characteristics of the stock market is that it’s a market. Buyers and sellers help determine the price of each stock, and the more buyers and sellers a particular stock has interested in it, the more liquid the market will be. Liquidity can have a profound impact on just how violently stock prices can move in either direction, and the reasons have to do with the nature of the market in a stock’s shares.

Trading volume, or volume, is the number of shares or contracts that indicates the overall activity of a security or market for a given period. Trading volume is an important technical indicator an investor uses to confirm a trend or trend reversal. Volume gives an investor an idea of the price action of a security and whether they should buy or sell the security.

Performance Levels

Looking performance record on shares of Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) we observed that the stock has seen a move 163.99% over the last 52-week trading period. The stock generated performance of 440.01% tracking last 3 months. Investors will be anxiously watching to see if things will turn around and the stock will start gaining or losing momentum over the next few months. If we look back year-to-date, the stock has performed -9.29%. Shares are at -25.56% over the previous week and -5.68% over the past month.

Analyst Views:

Fluctuating the focus to what the Wall Street analysts are projecting, we can see that the current consensus target price on shares is $0. Analysts often put in a lot of work to study stocks that they cover. Wall Street analysts have a consensus recommendation of 2.20on this stock. This number falls on a one to five scale where a 1 would be considered a strong buy and 5 means a strong sell, 2 shows Buy, 3 Hold, 4 reveals Sell recommendation.

Volatility Insights

Watching some historical volatility numbers on shares of Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) we can see that the 30 days volatility is presently 14.75%. The 7 days volatility is 11.99%. Following volatility data can help measure how much the stock price has fluctuated over the specified time period. Although past volatility action may help project future stock volatility, it may also be vastly different when taking into account other factors that may be driving price action during the measured time period.

The company has a beta of 3.63. 1.00 indicates that its price is correlated with the market. Less than 1.00 shows less volatility than the market. Beta greater than 1.00 indicates that the security’s price is theoretically more volatile than the market.

The Average True Range (ATR) value reported at 0.40. The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator that measures volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period. A stock experiencing a high level of volatility has a higher ATR, and a low volatility stock has a lower ATR. The ATR may be used by market technicians to enter and exit trades, and it is a useful tool to add to a trading system. It was created to allow traders to more accurately measure the daily volatility of an asset by using simple calculations. The indicator does not indicate the price direction; rather it is used primarily to measure volatility caused by gaps and limit up or down moves. The ATR is fairly simple to calculate and only needs historical price data.

Technical Considerations

Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) stock positioned 199.64% distance from the 200-day MA and stock price situated 38.14% away from the 50-day MA while located -29.03% off of the 20-day MA.

RSI value sited with reading of 54.55. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an extremely useful and popular momentum oscillator. The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock’s recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100. It takes a single parameter, the number of time periods to use in the calculation. In his book, Wilder recommends using 14 periods.

Observing the Technical Indicators:

Ocugen, Inc. institutional ownership is held at 13.20% while insider ownership was 3.26%. As of now, OCGN has a P/S, P/E and P/B values of 6514.20, 0 and 16.60 respectively. Its P/Cash is valued at 14.54. The Company’s net profit margin for the 12 months at 0. Comparatively, the gazes have a Gross margin 0.

Profitability ratios:

Looking into the profitability ratios of OCGN stock, an investor will find its ROE, ROA, ROI standing at -153.70%, -99.10% and 0, respectively.

Earnings per Share Details of Ocugen, Inc.:

The EPS of OCGN is strolling at -0.02, measuring its EPS growth this year at 89.60%. As a result, the company has an EPS growth of 0 for the approaching year.

Given the importance of identifying companies that will ensure earnings per share at a tall rate, we later obsession to umpire how to identify which companies will achieve high amassing rates. One obvious showing off to identify high earnings per portion count together companies are to locate companies that have demonstrated such build up beyond the p.s. 5 to 10 years.

The payout ratio shows the proportion of earnings paid out as dividends to shareholders, typically expressed as a percentage of the company’s earnings. The payout ratio can also be expressed as dividends paid out as a proportion of cash flow. The payout ratio is also known as the dividend payout ratio. The Company’s payout ratio was 0 and Price to free cash flow remained $0.